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Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.

That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."

Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion

The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the book, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.

Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.

"The Irish government should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."

Request for Broader Debate

Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."